Today: AA 300 at 21:30 is the safest bet, 39% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39–56%.

Safest bet today AA 300 JFK 21:30 → LAX 00:54 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest B6 1223 JFK 20:54 → LAX 00:00 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 49% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 47% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 37 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 300 American Flight history →	JFK 21:30	LAX 00:54	39%	12%	0.5%	73%worse than usual
UA 2641 United Flight history →	EWR 17:30	LAX 20:40	39%	14%	0.6%	72%worse than usual
UA 1690 United Flight history →	EWR 17:05	SNA 20:11	46%	11%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
AA 302 American Flight history →	JFK 18:10	LAX 21:28	47%	10%	0.5%	76%worse than usual
AA 117 American Flight history →	JFK 20:00	LAX 23:24	47%	11%	0.5%	74%worse than usual
DL 747 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:41	LAX 20:36	48%	11%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
AA 306 American Flight history →	JFK 17:00	LAX 20:19	48%	13%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
B6 823 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:50	LAX 21:02	48%	14%	0.7%	63%worse than usual
B6 358 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:55	BUR 20:14	48%	25%	1.3%	71%worse than usual
UA 353 United Flight history →	EWR 18:45	LAX 21:36	49%	16%	0.4%	68%worse than usual
DL 752 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:20	LAX 23:38	49%	14%	0.4%	73%worse than usual
B6 355 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 19:40	ONT 22:44	49%	23%	0.5%	62%worse than usual
B6 923 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:40	LAX 00:51	49%	19%	0.5%	58%
DL 771 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:05	LAX 20:20	49%	14%	0.6%	78%worse than usual
AS 287 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 19:29	LAX 22:40	50%	19%	1.0%	74%worse than usual
B6 1023 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:11	LAX 21:17	51%	14%	0.6%	73%worse than usual
UA 712 United Flight history →	EWR 20:10	LAX 23:15	52%	17%	0.5%	59%worse than usual
DL 1915 Delta	JFK 18:57	LAX 21:50	53%	11%	0.4%	no record
B6 2073 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 20:59	LAX 23:57	54%	19%	0.7%	68%worse than usual
UA 345 United	EWR 20:15	LAX 23:09	55%	19%	0.6%	no record
B6 1223 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:54	LAX 00:00	56%	19%	0.5%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999	1h 20m Detroit	DTW 20:59 → LAX 22:46DL 694	8h 46m	76%	49%
United Details →	EWR 17:12 → DEN 19:45UA 1197	1h 35m Denver	DEN 21:20 → LAX 22:55UA 531	8h 43m	77%	44%
American Details →	JFK 17:00 → PHX 19:31AA 2339	1h 36m Phoenix	PHX 21:07 → SNA 22:26AA 2637	8h 26m	77%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON