Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3164 at 21:26, 35%.

Safest bet today WN 3164 OAK 21:26 → DEN 00:55 · 35% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3044 OAK 14:55 → DEN 18:20 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Weather 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3164 Southwest	OAK 21:26	DEN 00:55	35%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 2418 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 19:15	DEN 22:40	45%	9%	0.1%	67%worse than usual
WN 3163 Southwest	OAK 17:26	DEN 20:53	47%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 3043 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:05	DEN 16:30	48%	4%	0.1%	39%
WN 1511 Southwest	OAK 14:36	DEN 18:03	50%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 3044 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 14:55	DEN 18:20	56%	7%	0.1%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON