Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:30 pm at Ontario); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via SFO, leaving 18:39, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Nashville on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest	3h 52m San Francisco	SFO 23:59 → BNA 06:37 +1UA 1815	9h 58m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	ONT 18:40 → SMF 20:05WN 3170	3h 01m Sacramento	SMF 23:06 → BNA 05:13 +1WN 3895	8h 33m	95%	71%
Alaska Details →	ONT 18:56 → SEA 21:33AS 592	1h 42m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → BNA 05:40 +1AS 382	8h 44m	88%	56%
Southwest Details →	ONT 16:35 → LAS 17:40WN 2213	1h 39m Las Vegas	LAS 19:19 → BNA 00:55 +1WN 2266	6h 20m	86%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON