Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3170
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3170 · ONT → SMF
departs 6:40 PM PT · arrives 8:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
ONT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.