Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3170
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3170 · ONT → SMF
departs 6:30 PM PT · arrives 7:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 15%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
ONT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.