Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3170
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3170 · ONT → SMF
departs 6:15 PM PT · arrives 7:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.