tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:23 am at Ontario); 3 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: F9 3132 at 18:36, 36%.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
F9 3132 Frontier Flight history → ONT 18:36 IAH 23:58 36% 15% 1.0% 75%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 13:00 → SLC 15:47DL 3172 1h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 6h 50m 95% 68%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 3h 12m San Francisco SFO 18:27 → IAH 00:24 +1UA 2464 8h 34m 98% 67%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 18:56 → SEA 21:33AS 592 2h 24m Seattle SEA 23:57 → IAH 06:20 +1AS 398 9h 24m 90% 66%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 3h 50m Denver DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419 8h 41m 94% 53%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 10h 09m 99% 50%
AmericanDetails → ONT 14:28 → DFW 19:46AA 2635 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → IAH 00:14 +1AA 3023 7h 46m 97% 40%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 12:08 → SEA 14:48AS 654 2h 48m Seattle SEA 17:36 → IAH 23:47AS 240 9h 39m 100% 39%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:35 → DFW 17:50AA 2242 3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209 7h 49m 100% 39%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ONT 14:05 → SEA 16:45AS 567 51m Seattle SEA 17:36 → IAH 23:47AS 240 7h 42m 52% 21%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 14:10 → SEA 16:47AS 575 46m Seattle SEA 17:33 → IAH 23:59AS 1573 7h 49m 37% 14%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:35 → DFW 17:50AA 2242 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 5h 19m 47% 14%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON