tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:05 pm at Ontario)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:10, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 17:10 → SLC 20:03DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest 3h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 9h 50m 93% 68%
UnitedDetails → ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest 3h 52m San Francisco SFO 23:59 → MCO 08:34 +1UA 1267 10h 55m 100% 67%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 18:40 → SMF 20:05WN 3170 2h 25m Sacramento SMF 22:30 → MCO 06:34 +1WN 3943 8h 54m 88% 60%
DeltaDetails → ONT 18:01 → SEA 20:50DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Seattle SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448 10h 39m 95% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ONT 19:18 → PHX 20:47AA 1666 1h 04m Phoenix PHX 21:51 → MCO 05:00 +1AA 563 6h 42m 64% 37%
SouthwestDetails → ONT 20:40 → PHX 21:55WN 3160 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 22:55 → MCO 06:09 +1WN 3424 6h 29m 48% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON