Today: YX 4758 at 14:31 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–38%.

Safest bet today YX 4758 ORD 14:31 → BWI 17:41 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 440 ORD 18:20 → BWI 21:26 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4758 Republic	ORD 14:31	BWI 17:41	26%	5%	0.3%	no record
UA 675 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	BWI 00:28	26%	11%	0.2%	60%
AA 4663 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:39	BWI 21:49	31%	6%	0.4%	79%
UA 220 United	ORD 20:09	BWI 23:17	32%	10%	0.2%	no record
UA 2737 United	ORD 15:23	BWI 18:31	33%	9%	0.3%	no record
AA 4717 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:30	BWI 19:43	33%	7%	0.4%	61%
UA 2124 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	BWI 17:36	33%	9%	0.4%	69%
UA 1557 United	ORD 17:51	BWI 20:51	38%	11%	0.2%	no record
UA 440 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	BWI 21:26	38%	11%	0.2%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON