Today: MQ 3947 at 17:17 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–46%.

Safest bet today MQ 3947 ORD 17:17 → DTW 19:52 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4885 ORD 18:53 → DTW 21:17 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 18 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 3947 Envoy	ORD 17:17	DTW 19:52	22%	4%	0.4%	no record
UA 3475 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:20	DTW 23:54	24%	6%	0.2%	76%
AA 4012 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 20:57	DTW 23:20	26%	5%	0.4%	100%worse than usual
AA 3500 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:11	DTW 20:46	26%	7%	0.5%	61%
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:18	DTW 19:50	35%	8%	0.5%	71%
DL 1084 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:17	DTW 21:52	36%	10%	0.6%	69%
UA 2426 United Flight history →	ORD 19:47	DTW 22:19	37%	12%	0.2%	63%
UA 349 United	ORD 21:29	DTW 23:52	38%	10%	0.2%	no record
AA 4931 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:53	DTW 21:30	39%	17%	0.6%	57%
UA 642 United	ORD 18:07	DTW 20:30	40%	14%	0.2%	no record
UA 768 United	ORD 20:09	DTW 22:30	40%	11%	0.2%	no record
OO 4885 SkyWest	ORD 18:53	DTW 21:17	46%	15%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON