Today: AA 4426 at 13:36 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–39%.

Safest bet today AA 4426 ORD 13:36 → IAH 16:32 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3144 ORD 21:07 → IAH 23:51 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4426 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 13:36	IAH 16:32	20%	4%	0.2%	83%
UA 2451 United Flight history →	ORD 14:15	IAH 17:20	24%	4%	0.2%	78%
UA 2062 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	IAH 17:27	26%	4%	0.2%	76%
UA 2665 United Flight history →	ORD 21:40	IAH 00:34	26%	6%	0.4%	76%
AA 2302 American	ORD 13:22	IAH 16:14	26%	9%	0.3%	no record
UA 714 United Flight history →	ORD 16:05	IAH 19:10	28%	6%	0.2%	74%
UA 1954 United Flight history →	ORD 17:45	IAH 20:50	29%	5%	0.2%	77%
UA 2813 United Flight history →	ORD 20:02	IAH 22:59	30%	6%	0.2%	56%
UA 1475 United Flight history →	ORD 18:29	IAH 21:25	33%	7%	0.2%	62%
AA 1913 American Flight history →	ORD 15:07	IAH 18:01	33%	9%	0.3%	52%
UA 1921 United	ORD 17:48	IAH 20:36	35%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 2788 United	ORD 18:34	IAH 21:20	37%	6%	0.2%	no record
F9 3135 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 14:56	IAH 17:48	37%	9%	0.8%	78%worse than usual
AA 2243 American	ORD 15:30	IAH 18:19	39%	9%	0.3%	no record
AA 1496 American	ORD 17:10	IAH 20:03	39%	9%	0.3%	no record
AA 3144 American Flight history →	ORD 21:07	IAH 23:51	39%	10%	0.4%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON