Today: UA 2106 at 21:35 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–35%.

Safest bet today UA 2106 ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 2856 ORD 19:10 → SFO 22:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2106 United Flight history →	ORD 21:35	SFO 00:32	22%	6%	0.3%	78%
UA 1334 United Flight history →	ORD 15:26	SFO 18:18	25%	6%	0.4%	66%
UA 2251 United Flight history →	ORD 15:57	SFO 18:49	26%	6%	0.4%	69%
UA 1577 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	SFO 17:19	26%	7%	0.4%	74%
UA 2437 United	ORD 16:02	SFO 18:33	28%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 3202 American	ORD 21:37	SFO 00:19	28%	6%	0.4%	no record
UA 1495 United Flight history →	ORD 20:04	SFO 22:57	29%	6%	0.3%	45%
AA 3054 American Flight history →	ORD 21:17	SFO 23:59	29%	6%	0.5%	32%
AA 1253 American Flight history →	ORD 15:18	SFO 17:58	30%	7%	0.5%	70%
UA 649 United	ORD 18:22	SFO 20:55	33%	6%	0.3%	no record
UA 2179 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	SFO 21:18	35%	7%	0.3%	48%
AA 3141 American Flight history →	ORD 17:22	SFO 20:05	35%	7%	0.5%	57%
AA 1620 American Flight history →	ORD 18:09	SFO 20:56	35%	7%	0.5%	34%
AA 2856 American	ORD 19:10	SFO 22:10	35%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON