Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1316 at 15:09, 37%.

Safest bet today UA 1316 MCO 15:09 → LAX 17:40 · 37% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2770 MCO 18:30 → LAX 20:37 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Weather 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1316 United	MCO 15:09	LAX 17:40	37%	14%	0.4%	no record
DL 872 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:12	LAX 21:30	42%	13%	0.6%	64%
DL 644 Delta	MCO 19:06	LAX 21:14	45%	15%	0.5%	no record
DL 382 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:25	LAX 19:42	46%	15%	0.4%	70%worse than usual
UA 1213 United Flight history →	MCO 19:37	LAX 21:55	46%	15%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
DL 1051 Delta	MCO 17:16	LAX 19:24	46%	18%	0.4%	no record
AA 1205 American Flight history →	MCO 20:00	LAX 22:15	50%	24%	0.7%	61%worse than usual
F9 4145 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:43	LAX 18:10	55%	27%	1.3%	80%worse than usual
WN 2770 Southwest	MCO 18:30	LAX 20:37	58%	19%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MCO 11:57 → IAH 13:29UA 1493	1h 25m Houston	IAH 14:54 → LAX 16:27UA 1951	7h 30m	78%	52%
Southwest Details →	MCO 19:30 → AUS 21:15WN 4402	1h 30m Austin	AUS 22:45 → LAX 00:01 +1WN 359	7h 31m	80%	52%
Southwest Details →	MCO 15:45 → AUS 17:30WN 2674	1h 25m Austin	AUS 18:55 → BUR 20:16WN 548	7h 31m	81%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON