Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2693 at 08:52, 10%.

Safest bet today WN 2693 MCO 08:52 → BWI 11:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest WN 2710 MCO 20:36 → DCA 22:50 · 71% chance 15+ min late

Weather 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2693 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:52	BWI 11:19	10%	2%	0.7%	67%
WN 4283 Southwest	MCO 08:56	DCA 11:13	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2612 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:10	BWI 11:25	14%	2%	0.8%	86%
UA 276 United Flight history →	MCO 08:51	IAD 11:10	16%	3%	0.5%	95%worse than usual
WN 1908 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:50	DCA 12:05	20%	3%	0.5%	75%
UA 2746 United	MCO 09:01	IAD 11:31	20%	4%	0.5%	no record
B6 2024 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 08:44	DCA 11:00	21%	6%	0.7%	86%
UA 1893 United Flight history →	MCO 09:37	IAD 11:55	23%	4%	0.5%	93%worse than usual
AA 2088 American Flight history →	MCO 10:40	DCA 12:59	26%	9%	0.6%	93%worse than usual
WN 766 Southwest	MCO 12:29	BWI 14:55	26%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:20	DCA 12:32	27%	6%	0.5%	83%worse than usual
UA 1757 United Flight history →	MCO 12:45	IAD 15:13	28%	9%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
WN 4567 Southwest	MCO 13:36	BWI 16:02	29%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 2065 United Flight history →	MCO 13:31	IAD 15:50	30%	10%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
WN 1637 Southwest	MCO 11:40	BWI 13:55	30%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 717 Southwest	MCO 13:16	DCA 15:32	38%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 2587 Southwest	MCO 13:35	DCA 15:50	39%	11%	0.6%	no record
AA 2128 American Flight history →	MCO 11:40	DCA 13:59	39%	13%	0.8%	75%worse than usual
AA 2104 American Flight history →	MCO 12:13	DCA 14:31	39%	14%	0.8%	77%worse than usual
WN 1572 Southwest	MCO 15:00	BWI 17:25	40%	11%	1.0%	no record
WN 1403 Southwest	MCO 16:07	BWI 18:32	42%	12%	0.8%	no record
UA 413 United Flight history →	MCO 16:45	IAD 19:08	43%	13%	0.7%	73%worse than usual
WN 2613 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:15	BWI 18:45	43%	13%	0.8%	47%
AA 1071 American	MCO 14:23	DCA 16:58	43%	19%	0.9%	no record
WN 1100 Southwest	MCO 15:01	BWI 17:27	44%	11%	1.0%	no record
WN 1917 Southwest	MCO 21:20	BWI 23:50	48%	21%	1.3%	no record
UA 390 United	MCO 18:17	IAD 20:46	48%	15%	0.8%	no record
AA 2062 American Flight history →	MCO 14:37	DCA 16:59	50%	19%	0.9%	72%worse than usual
WN 889 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:30	BWI 20:05	50%	19%	1.4%	54%
WN 2696 Southwest	MCO 21:26	BWI 23:52	51%	21%	1.3%	no record
WN 2627 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:30	DCA 22:05	52%	34%	1.0%	40%
WN 1521 Southwest	MCO 17:32	BWI 19:58	52%	16%	1.4%	no record
UA 1997 United Flight history →	MCO 19:05	IAD 21:30	53%	19%	0.8%	67%worse than usual
WN 455 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:20	BWI 21:00	55%	20%	1.4%	55%worse than usual
F9 3664 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:06	BWI 17:40	55%	22%	3.1%	76%worse than usual
DL 2729 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:52	DCA 23:22	56%	26%	2.7%	70%worse than usual
B6 2324 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:40	DCA 15:59	56%	30%	0.8%	59%worse than usual
WN 1387 Southwest	MCO 19:05	BWI 21:30	56%	19%	1.4%	no record
WN 2691 Southwest	MCO 18:57	BWI 21:22	58%	17%	1.4%	no record
AA 958 American Flight history →	MCO 21:19	DCA 23:37	60%	30%	2.7%	58%worse than usual
AA 1614 American	MCO 17:14	DCA 19:33	61%	30%	1.3%	no record
B6 2424 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:34	DCA 19:59	67%	43%	1.3%	55%worse than usual
F9 4004 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:03	BWI 20:33	67%	34%	2.7%	57%worse than usual
F9 2310 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:25	BWI 20:57	68%	30%	2.4%	67%worse than usual
WN 2710 Southwest	MCO 20:36	DCA 22:50	71%	28%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON