Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:21 pm at Portland); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49% (calm day: 19%). Best bet: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 19:38, 30% on time.

Nonstops today


WN 3194 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 21:20	BWI 05:15	22%	4%	0.2%	79%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PDX 19:27 → SFO 21:41UA 2615	1h 26m San Francisco	SFO 23:07 → BWI 07:37 +1UA 1646	9h 10m	83%	65%
Alaska Details →	PDX 17:30 → SEA 18:33AS 430	3h 03m Seattle	SEA 21:36 → BWI 05:41 +1AS 781	9h 11m	100%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PDX 19:27 → SFO 21:41UA 2615	59m San Francisco	SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:10 +1UA 1340	8h 43m	67%	52%
Alaska Details →	PDX 19:38 → SEA 20:33AS 2313 · flown by Horizon	1h 03m Seattle	SEA 21:36 → BWI 05:41 +1AS 781	7h 03m	58%	30%
Delta Details →	PDX 14:08 → ATL 21:59DL 2206	46m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	7h 31m	48%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON