Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:46 pm at Portland); 9 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: AA 2283 at 23:41 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 48%.

Nonstops today


AA 2283 American Flight history →	PDX 23:41	DFW 05:28	25%	5%	0.7%	62%
AA 2496 American Flight history →	PDX 14:07	DFW 19:55	48%	11%	1.2%	74%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PDX 19:27 → SFO 21:41UA 2615	2h 18m San Francisco	SFO 23:59 → DFW 05:45 +1UA 1722	8h 18m	93%	67%
American Details →	PDX 15:31 → PHX 18:12AA 2986	2h 09m Phoenix	PHX 20:21 → DFW 00:48 +1AA 2603	7h 17m	89%	57%
Alaska Details →	PDX 13:48 → SEA 14:43AS 2205 · flown by Horizon	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 17:58 → DFW 23:48AS 542	8h 00m	100%	53%
Delta Details →	PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:38DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Seattle	SEA 17:55 → DFW 23:55DL 870	6h 25m	75%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PDX 16:15 → DEN 19:51UA 1787	1h 02m Denver	DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239	5h 44m	75%	43%
American Details →	PDX 15:31 → PHX 18:12AA 2986	48m Phoenix	PHX 19:00 → DFW 23:25AA 633	5h 54m	53%	32%
Delta Details →	PDX 14:08 → ATL 21:59DL 2206	55m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	8h 05m	68%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON