Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 24–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2459 PDX 20:30 → LAX 23:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2551 PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2459 Delta Flight history →	PDX 20:30	LAX 23:00	24%	8%	0.3%	89%worse than usual
AS 1389 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:27	LAX 23:56	25%	4%	0.2%	82%
AS 278 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:37	LAX 20:09	25%	4%	0.2%	87%worse than usual
AS 1458 Alaska	PDX 21:31	LAX 23:59	25%	4%	0.2%	no record
AS 481 Alaska	PDX 17:18	LAX 19:45	26%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 2551 Delta Flight history →	PDX 17:37	LAX 20:00	30%	8%	0.3%	88%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON