Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: WN 753 at 14:50, 37%.

Safest bet today WN 753 PDX 14:50 → OAK 16:35 · 37% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 254 PDX 17:45 → OAK 19:25 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Weather 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 753 Southwest	PDX 14:50	OAK 16:35	37%	10%	0.2%	no record
WN 3825 Southwest	PDX 21:21	OAK 23:16	45%	14%	0.1%	no record
WN 3205 Southwest Flight history →	PDX 21:00	OAK 22:40	49%	11%	0.1%	29%
WN 254 Southwest	PDX 17:45	OAK 19:25	58%	15%	0.1%	no record
AS 2082 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:33	OAK 19:23	2%	0%	0.0%	98%
AS 2036 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 19:54	OAK 21:41	10%	3%	0.0%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON