Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 71%, against 45% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3142 at 20:45, 67%.

Safest bet today WN 3142 PHX 20:45 → AUS 01:08 · 67% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 691 PHX 19:44 → AUS 23:57 · 78% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Weather 71% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 45% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3142 Southwest	PHX 20:45	AUS 01:08	67%	37%	0.6%	no record
WN 2431 Southwest	PHX 21:35	AUS 01:55	67%	32%	0.6%	no record
AA 691 American Flight history →	PHX 19:44	AUS 23:57	78%	52%	0.9%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON