Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 65%, against 43% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3816 at 22:50, 56%.

Safest bet today WN 3816 PHX 22:50 → LAS 00:06 · 56% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1231 PHX 22:25 → LAS 23:35 · 72% chance 15+ min late

Weather 65% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 43% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 24 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3816 Southwest	PHX 22:50	LAS 00:06	56%	11%	0.4%	no record
AA 1022 American Flight history →	PHX 18:04	LAS 19:15	58%	22%	0.5%	44%
AA 2106 American Flight history →	PHX 20:36	LAS 21:43	62%	19%	0.5%	68%worse than usual
F9 4113 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 19:18	LAS 20:40	66%	30%	1.3%	69%worse than usual
WN 990 Southwest	PHX 21:00	LAS 22:10	67%	17%	0.4%	no record
WN 4052 Southwest	PHX 20:45	LAS 22:01	68%	16%	0.4%	no record
WN 3408 Southwest	PHX 19:36	LAS 20:52	68%	18%	0.4%	no record
WN 2102 Southwest	PHX 19:05	LAS 20:15	70%	18%	0.4%	no record
WN 1231 Southwest	PHX 22:25	LAS 23:35	72%	13%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON