Today: WN 983 at 12:01 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–48%.

Safest bet today WN 983 PHX 12:01 → SJC 13:27 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3477 PHX 19:56 → SJC 21:58 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 983 Southwest	PHX 12:01	SJC 13:27	26%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 4102 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 13:10	SJC 15:00	32%	4%	0.1%	86%worse than usual
AA 2094 American Flight history →	PHX 16:27	SJC 18:31	42%	14%	0.2%	67%
WN 2678 Southwest	PHX 15:26	SJC 17:27	42%	7%	0.1%	no record
AA 1537 American Flight history →	PHX 20:43	SJC 22:52	42%	19%	0.2%	80%worse than usual
WN 4658 Southwest	PHX 17:21	SJC 19:22	45%	8%	0.1%	no record
WN 2468 Southwest	PHX 21:06	SJC 23:07	45%	13%	0.1%	no record
AA 1197 American Flight history →	PHX 20:51	SJC 22:41	46%	19%	0.2%	62%
AA 2576 American Flight history →	PHX 16:40	SJC 18:31	46%	14%	0.2%	67%worse than usual
WN 351 Southwest	PHX 17:10	SJC 19:00	46%	8%	0.1%	no record
WN 255 Southwest	PHX 22:00	SJC 23:55	47%	11%	0.1%	no record
WN 3477 Southwest	PHX 19:56	SJC 21:58	48%	14%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON