tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:12 pm at Phoenix); 17 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 52%, against 36% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1451 at 19:20, 39%.

Safest bet today DL 1451 PHX 19:20 → SLC 21:59 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 4867 PHX 19:00 → SLC 21:35 · 68% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time
Weather 52% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 17 flights that already left today are not shown.
DL 1451 Delta Flight history → PHX 19:20 SLC 21:59 39% 18% 0.2% 87%worse than usual
AA 4921 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PHX 20:20 SLC 23:03 42% 12% 0.2% 73%worse than usual
AA 4968 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PHX 20:22 SLC 23:07 42% 14% 0.2% 86%worse than usual
WN 3720 Southwest PHX 21:42 SLC 00:25 58% 12% 0.1% no record
WN 4792 Southwest Flight history → PHX 21:35 SLC 00:15 58% 14% 0.1% 58%worse than usual
WN 3313 Southwest PHX 22:52 SLC 01:35 60% 11% 0.1% no record
WN 4867 Southwest Flight history → PHX 19:00 SLC 21:35 68% 15% 0.1% 46%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON