Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:09 pm at Pittsburgh); 11 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3517 Southwest	PIT 19:55	MCO 22:19	26%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 1182 Southwest	PIT 21:45	MCO 00:06	26%	12%	0.8%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PIT 19:59 → IAD 21:18UA 3449 · flown by Republic	1h 15m Dulles	IAD 22:33 → MCO 01:01 +1UA 689	5h 02m	87%	66%
Delta Details →	PIT 19:48 → ATL 21:35DL 3122	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 23:29 → MCO 01:05 +1DL 1562	5h 17m	90%	28%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PIT 19:48 → ATL 21:35DL 3122	50m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	4h 10m	68%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON