Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:46 pm at Rochester); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today


UA 4861 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 19:54	IAD 21:16	21%	8%	17.2%	79%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ROC 17:47 → ORD 18:55UA 2059	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 2766	6h 58m	91%	70%
American Details →	ROC 18:51 → CLT 20:54AA 2320	1h 51m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242	5h 19m	83%	56%
Delta Details →	ROC 17:48 → DTW 19:15DL 5231 · flown by Endeavor	2h 23m Detroit	DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest	5h 25m	85%	55%
Delta Details →	ROC 18:15 → ATL 20:35DL 2047	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 26m	90%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ROC 17:47 → ORD 18:55UA 2059	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 20:11 → IAD 23:09UA 304	5h 22m	73%	54%
American Details →	ROC 19:03 → CLT 21:00AA 2424	1h 36m Charlotte	CLT 22:36 → IAD 00:07 +1AA 2608	5h 04m	73%	51%
United Details →	ROC 19:10 → EWR 20:30UA 4385 · flown by GoJet	1h 20m Newark	EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784	4h 09m	52%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON