Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:53 pm at Fort Myers); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 48% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 2446 American Flight history →	RSW 18:22	DFW 20:24	48%	24%	2.2%	55%
AA 2736 American Flight history →	RSW 18:24	DFW 20:22	48%	24%	2.4%	66%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RSW 17:00 → IAH 18:40UA 2833	2h 57m Houston	IAH 21:37 → DFW 22:59UA 1183	6h 59m	94%	61%
American Details →	RSW 18:58 → CLT 20:57AA 1930	1h 39m Charlotte	CLT 22:36 → DFW 00:29 +1AA 1271	6h 31m	87%	56%
Delta Details →	RSW 18:27 → ATL 20:24DL 1349	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	6h 46m	88%	36%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RSW 19:41 → CLT 21:45AA 2442	51m Charlotte	CLT 22:36 → DFW 00:29 +1AA 1271	5h 48m	48%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON