Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 63%, against 40% on a calm day. Safest: OO 3323 at 22:01, 43%.

Safest bet today OO 3323 SAN 22:01 → LAS 23:28 · 43% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4263 SAN 19:03 → LAS 20:27 · 74% chance 15+ min late

Weather 63% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 40% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 23 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 3323 SkyWest	SAN 22:01	LAS 23:28	43%	14%	0.7%	no record
WN 2771 Southwest	SAN 22:35	LAS 00:10	46%	16%	0.6%	no record
WN 2211 Southwest	SAN 22:35	LAS 23:58	65%	22%	0.6%	no record
F9 1326 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 20:51	LAS 22:21	67%	38%	1.3%	57%worse than usual
WN 3040 Southwest	SAN 20:50	LAS 22:15	68%	29%	0.6%	no record
WN 4230 Southwest	SAN 20:50	LAS 22:14	69%	30%	0.5%	no record
WN 310 Southwest	SAN 20:10	LAS 21:35	69%	32%	0.6%	no record
WN 4263 Southwest	SAN 19:03	LAS 20:27	74%	27%	0.5%	no record
AS 2274 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 20:15	LAS 21:43	65%	31%	5.9%	35%
AS 2305 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 22:02	LAS 23:28	73%	0%	13.3%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON