Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 70%, against 31% on a calm day. Safest: AS 1362 at 20:35, 60%.

Safest bet today AS 1362 SAN 20:35 → SEA 23:41 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest WN 884 SAN 17:20 → SEA 20:07 · 86% chance 15+ min late

Weather 70% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 17 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 1362 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 20:35	SEA 23:41	60%	19%	1.3%	72%worse than usual
AS 622 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 20:28	SEA 23:14	62%	19%	1.0%	83%worse than usual
AS 417 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 17:35	SEA 20:35	67%	20%	1.0%	69%worse than usual
AS 692 Alaska	SAN 17:20	SEA 20:08	67%	22%	1.1%	no record
AS 1431 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 18:35	SEA 21:35	68%	21%	1.0%	73%worse than usual
AS 1373 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 19:27	SEA 22:14	69%	20%	1.0%	93%worse than usual
AS 683 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 18:27	SEA 21:14	70%	20%	0.9%	75%worse than usual
DL 2613 Delta Flight history →	SAN 19:00	SEA 22:03	72%	32%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
DL 2572 Delta Flight history →	SAN 16:11	SEA 19:05	78%	27%	0.4%	87%worse than usual
WN 884 Southwest	SAN 17:20	SEA 20:07	86%	38%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON