Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 72%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: AS 1624 at 22:25, 55%.

Safest bet today AS 1624 SAN 22:25 → SJC 23:55 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest WN 4185 SAN 18:20 → SJC 19:45 · 80% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Weather 72% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 17 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 1624 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 22:25	SJC 23:55	55%	16%	0.4%	79%worse than usual
OO 3147 SkyWest	SAN 16:07	SJC 17:45	60%	14%	0.4%	no record
OO 3313 SkyWest	SAN 17:53	SJC 19:31	60%	14%	0.4%	no record
AS 3029 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 16:26	SJC 18:00	63%	14%	0.4%	71%worse than usual
AS 3068 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 17:37	SJC 19:11	63%	14%	0.5%	70%worse than usual
WN 3705 Southwest	SAN 22:02	SJC 23:35	64%	24%	0.3%	no record
AS 1308 Alaska	SAN 21:14	SJC 22:47	67%	18%	0.4%	no record
WN 4264 Southwest	SAN 18:06	SJC 19:39	78%	32%	0.2%	no record
WN 2964 Southwest	SAN 19:36	SJC 21:10	78%	32%	0.3%	no record
WN 3784 Southwest	SAN 21:12	SJC 22:46	78%	27%	0.3%	no record
WN 854 Southwest	SAN 15:52	SJC 17:26	78%	27%	0.2%	no record
WN 4186 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 19:50	SJC 21:15	78%	34%	0.2%	26%
WN 5091 Southwest	SAN 15:45	SJC 17:10	79%	24%	0.2%	no record
WN 3541 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 17:30	SJC 18:55	79%	32%	0.2%	56%worse than usual
WN 222 Southwest	SAN 18:51	SJC 20:25	79%	32%	0.2%	no record
WN 3542 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:30	SJC 22:55	79%	30%	0.2%	54%worse than usual
WN 1508 Southwest	SAN 19:45	SJC 21:10	79%	32%	0.2%	no record
WN 4185 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 18:20	SJC 19:45	80%	30%	0.2%	56%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON