Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 29–38% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 2121 SAT 16:17 → DAL 17:34 · 29% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2523 SAT 18:52 → DAL 20:09 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2121 Southwest	SAT 16:17	DAL 17:34	29%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 3708 Southwest	SAT 21:45	DAL 23:02	36%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 2154 Southwest	SAT 17:45	DAL 19:00	36%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 4236 Southwest	SAT 21:45	DAL 22:55	36%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2523 Southwest	SAT 18:52	DAL 20:09	38%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON