Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 23–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 275 SAT 17:54 → IAH 19:04 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2323 SAT 17:57 → IAH 19:04 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 275 United	SAT 17:54	IAH 19:04	23%	5%	0.4%	no record
UA 5658 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAT 19:20	IAH 20:33	24%	6%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
UA 2323 United Flight history →	SAT 17:57	IAH 19:04	29%	6%	0.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON