tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:27 pm at Seattle); 8 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 27% on a calm day. Safest: DL 567 at 23:14, 33%.

Safest bet today DL 567 SEA 23:14 → ATL 07:05 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AS 217 SEA 16:08 → ATL 23:55 · 48% chance 15+ min late
Weather 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.
DL 567 Delta Flight history → SEA 23:14 ATL 07:05 33% 8% 0.5% 84%worse than usual
AS 464 Alaska Flight history → SEA 23:31 ATL 07:24 36% 5% 0.6% 88%worse than usual
DL 409 Delta Flight history → SEA 22:58 ATL 06:45 40% 9% 0.5% 83%worse than usual
AS 217 Alaska SEA 16:08 ATL 23:55 48% 9% 0.6% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → SEA 19:57 → GEG 21:13DL 3677 · flown by SkyWest 1h 35m Spokane GEG 22:48 → ATL 06:05 +1DL 1843 7h 08m 86% 61%
DeltaDetails → SEA 20:59 → PDX 22:00DL 3913 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Portland PDX 23:07 → ATL 06:56 +1DL 2060 6h 57m 75% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON