Today: AS 314 at 22:40 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–56%.

Safest bet today AS 314 SEA 22:40 → EWR 06:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 1708 SEA 13:05 → EWR 21:29 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 314 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:40	EWR 06:59	22%	5%	1.0%	86%
UA 1274 United Flight history →	SEA 22:44	EWR 07:02	26%	8%	0.9%	87%worse than usual
AS 395 Alaska	SEA 22:41	EWR 06:40	27%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 2017 United	SEA 22:51	EWR 07:15	30%	9%	0.9%	no record
UA 2100 United Flight history →	SEA 15:30	EWR 23:56	40%	15%	0.5%	85%worse than usual
AS 292 Alaska	SEA 09:58	EWR 17:58	50%	14%	0.8%	no record
AS 477 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:05	EWR 18:29	50%	15%	0.8%	76%worse than usual
UA 1708 United Flight history →	SEA 13:05	EWR 21:29	56%	19%	0.6%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON