Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 53%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: AS 1393 at 20:47, 46%.

Safest bet today AS 1393 SEA 20:47 → OAK 22:56 · 46% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 614 SEA 19:35 → OAK 21:45 · 61% chance 15+ min late

Weather 53% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 1393 Alaska	SEA 20:47	OAK 22:56	46%	11%	0.4%	no record
AS 706 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:47	OAK 22:56	48%	10%	0.4%	77%worse than usual
AS 1328 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:45	OAK 18:53	51%	11%	0.6%	73%worse than usual
WN 410 Southwest	SEA 21:25	OAK 23:35	60%	19%	0.2%	no record
WN 614 Southwest	SEA 19:35	OAK 21:45	61%	20%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON