tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:25 pm at South Florida); 18 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 31 nonstops

Today: AA 2343 at 22:49 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36–64%.

Safest bet today AA 2343 MIA 22:49 → DFW 00:59 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time Riskiest F9 1973 FLL 18:50 → DFW 21:06 · 64% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time
Against a calm day 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 49% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 18 flights that already left today are not shown.
AA 2343 American Flight history → MIA 22:49 DFW 00:59 33% 11% 1.2% 55%
AA 1679 American Flight history → MIA 21:55 DFW 23:59 36% 12% 1.2% 74%worse than usual
WN 107 Southwest FLL 16:20 DAL 18:15 38% 9% 0.4% no record
WN 1908 Southwest MIA 15:01 DAL 16:57 39% 10% 0.5% no record
WN 1439 Southwest FLL 18:11 DAL 20:13 39% 11% 0.3% no record
AA 638 American Flight history → FLL 16:39 DFW 19:00 43% 15% 0.6% 84%worse than usual
AA 1868 American Flight history → FLL 19:11 DFW 21:23 45% 11% 0.6% 30%
AA 2798 American FLL 19:18 DFW 21:27 45% 10% 0.6% no record
AA 2014 American Flight history → FLL 16:26 DFW 18:39 45% 16% 0.7% 37%
AA 2282 American Flight history → PBI 18:44 DFW 21:00 45% 14% 2.7% 51%
AA 1373 American Flight history → FLL 17:38 DFW 19:57 46% 12% 0.6% 64%worse than usual
AA 1824 American Flight history → MIA 15:24 DFW 17:36 46% 19% 1.3% 63%
AA 2762 American Flight history → MIA 14:29 DFW 16:51 46% 18% 1.4% 68%worse than usual
AA 2276 American Flight history → PBI 14:14 DFW 16:28 46% 15% 3.4% 61%
AA 1863 American Flight history → FLL 15:04 DFW 17:22 46% 14% 0.7% 56%
AA 3104 American Flight history → MIA 19:30 DFW 21:45 46% 14% 1.0% 58%
AA 2289 American MIA 19:37 DFW 21:49 46% 14% 1.2% no record
B6 2279 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:59 DFW 23:16 47% 16% 0.6% 68%worse than usual
AA 1390 American Flight history → FLL 15:14 DFW 17:27 47% 14% 0.7% 58%
AA 1862 American Flight history → FLL 17:29 DFW 19:49 47% 13% 0.7% 44%
AA 2183 American MIA 14:00 DFW 16:12 47% 18% 1.4% no record
F9 2135 Frontier Flight history → MIA 14:30 DFW 16:50 48% 30% 2.2% 77%worse than usual
WN 2880 Southwest MIA 17:35 DAL 19:35 48% 14% 0.5% no record
AA 3260 American Flight history → MIA 17:30 DFW 19:56 49% 17% 1.2% 59%
AA 2828 American Flight history → MIA 17:37 DFW 19:42 49% 18% 1.2% 63%worse than usual
AA 3259 American Flight history → MIA 16:54 DFW 19:14 50% 17% 1.2% 73%worse than usual
AA 2823 American Flight history → MIA 16:39 DFW 19:04 50% 18% 1.2% 61%worse than usual
AA 1199 American Flight history → MIA 15:30 DFW 17:50 51% 23% 1.3% 57%
F9 1359 Frontier MIA 18:44 DFW 21:06 56% 24% 1.4% no record
F9 3317 Frontier Flight history → FLL 18:35 DFW 20:52 63% 25% 1.2% 56%worse than usual
F9 1973 Frontier Flight history → FLL 18:50 DFW 21:06 64% 24% 1.1% 55%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON