Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:09 pm at South Florida); 19 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Today: UA 2724 at 15:14 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–56%.

Safest bet today UA 2724 FLL 15:14 → IAH 17:10 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest B6 2779 FLL 21:00 → IAH 23:02 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 19 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2724 United Flight history →	FLL 15:14	IAH 17:10	25%	8%	0.2%	78%
UA 2474 United Flight history →	FLL 19:13	IAH 21:09	26%	9%	0.2%	88%worse than usual
UA 1696 United Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAH 18:56	30%	8%	0.2%	79%
UA 1338 United Flight history →	FLL 18:29	IAH 20:18	31%	9%	0.2%	81%worse than usual
AA 1931 American Flight history →	MIA 15:30	IAH 17:22	36%	15%	0.5%	59%
UA 1216 United Flight history →	MIA 16:53	IAH 18:56	37%	13%	0.4%	74%worse than usual
AA 2230 American Flight history →	MIA 20:12	IAH 21:59	38%	15%	0.6%	70%
MQ 3358 Envoy	MIA 15:29	IAH 17:12	39%	9%	0.4%	no record
UA 1752 United Flight history →	PBI 17:05	IAH 18:59	39%	11%	1.7%	68%
WN 4837 Southwest	FLL 20:01	HOU 21:41	40%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 4583 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 20:20	HOU 21:55	42%	9%	0.2%	30%
WN 1696 Southwest	MIA 20:20	HOU 22:00	46%	15%	0.4%	no record
B6 2779 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:00	IAH 23:02	56%	16%	0.4%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON