Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:32 am at South Florida); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Today: AA 3288 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–41%.

Safest bet today AA 3288 MIA 09:55 → LAX 12:24 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2458 MIA 21:54 → LAX 00:33 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3288 American Flight history →	MIA 09:55	LAX 12:24	17%	4%	0.2%	86%
DL 573 Delta	FLL 17:34	LAX 19:57	30%	8%	0.2%	no record
AA 3014 American Flight history →	MIA 13:53	LAX 16:21	30%	10%	0.3%	73%
AA 778 American Flight history →	MIA 14:25	LAX 16:52	31%	10%	0.3%	68%
B6 1401 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	LAX 13:20	31%	9%	0.2%	69%
AA 996 American	MIA 15:59	LAX 18:25	31%	11%	0.3%	no record
B6 101 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 15:52	LAX 18:37	33%	10%	0.2%	72%
B6 2501 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:35	LAX 23:58	33%	14%	0.7%	71%
AA 315 American Flight history →	MIA 16:00	LAX 18:27	35%	11%	0.3%	74%
AA 3328 American Flight history →	MIA 20:10	LAX 22:41	37%	12%	0.5%	64%
AA 669 American Flight history →	MIA 22:20	LAX 00:48	37%	14%	0.8%	56%
DL 450 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:17	LAX 21:49	39%	10%	0.2%	84%worse than usual
AA 2953 American Flight history →	MIA 17:30	LAX 19:58	39%	14%	0.4%	57%
AA 2458 American	MIA 21:54	LAX 00:33	41%	12%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	FLL 09:40 → BNA 11:00WN 4638	1h 30m Nashville	BNA 12:30 → LGB 14:40WN 204	8h 00m	98%	81%
American Details →	MIA 10:49 → PHX 12:35AA 3172	1h 29m Phoenix	PHX 14:04 → LAX 15:33AA 1362	7h 44m	91%	63%
United Details →	FLL 10:07 → DEN 12:20UA 204	1h 06m Denver	DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774	7h 50m	80%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON