Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:18 am at San Francisco); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 31–40% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 794 SFO 20:47 → BUR 22:18 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2764 SFO 16:10 → BUR 17:36 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 794 United	SFO 20:47	BUR 22:18	31%	9%	0.3%	no record
UA 1367 United Flight history →	SFO 20:32	BUR 21:59	32%	11%	0.2%	85%worse than usual
WN 4228 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 18:05	BUR 19:25	33%	11%	0.4%	49%
UA 1321 United Flight history →	SFO 17:54	BUR 19:20	35%	11%	0.2%	86%worse than usual
WN 3638 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 12:50	BUR 14:10	35%	8%	0.5%	39%
OO 5318 SkyWest	SFO 19:01	BUR 20:32	35%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 4312 Southwest	SFO 12:31	BUR 13:57	35%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 2001 United	SFO 18:02	BUR 19:28	36%	10%	0.2%	no record
UA 626 United Flight history →	SFO 13:50	BUR 15:17	38%	10%	0.3%	69%
WN 3772 Southwest	SFO 18:46	BUR 20:12	38%	15%	0.5%	no record
UA 2764 United Flight history →	SFO 16:10	BUR 17:36	40%	14%	0.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON