Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3638 · SFO → BUR
departs 12:50 PM PT · arrives 2:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
12pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Arrivals into BUR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.