Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 3638 · SFO → BUR
departs 3:00 PM PT · arrives 4:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SFO that day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.