Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3638 · SFO → BUR
departs 3:00 PM PT · arrives 4:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.