Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:13 pm at San Francisco); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1340 at 22:40, 29%.

Safest bet today UA 1340 SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:10 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 1342 SFO 21:36 → BWI 05:43 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Weather 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 1340 United Flight history →	SFO 22:40	BWI 07:10	29%	7%	0.2%	86%worse than usual
UA 1646 United	SFO 23:07	BWI 07:38	31%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 2683 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 21:10	BWI 05:25	43%	13%	0.3%	43%
WN 1342 Southwest	SFO 21:36	BWI 05:43	45%	12%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON