Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:11 pm at San Francisco); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 19:17, is the safest bet: 49% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 26% of the time.

Nonstops today


AA 2514 American Flight history →	SFO 22:05	CLT 06:11	26%	6%	0.4%	83%
AA 1580 American Flight history →	SFO 23:49	CLT 08:05	30%	6%	0.4%	59%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SFO 19:17 → PHX 21:33AA 1914	2h 10m Phoenix	PHX 23:43 → CLT 06:52 +1AA 2821	8h 35m	86%	71%
American Details →	SFO 18:55 → PHX 21:00AA 2544	2h 35m Phoenix	PHX 23:35 → CLT 06:35 +1AA 849	8h 40m	84%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SFO 19:17 → PHX 21:33AA 1914	1h 18m Phoenix	PHX 22:51 → CLT 06:03 +1AA 2714	7h 46m	66%	48%
American Details →	SFO 20:11 → LAX 21:49AA 2567	46m Los Angeles	LAX 22:35 → CLT 06:19 +1AA 3035	7h 08m	26%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON