tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:21 am at San Francisco); 2 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Frontier via Denver, leaving 12:02, is the safest bet: 22% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 41% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2386 United Flight history → SFO 14:18 DCA 22:30 30% 10% 0.2% 71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SFO 18:55 → PHX 21:00AA 2544 2h 52m Phoenix PHX 23:52 → DCA 07:14 +1AA 1542 9h 19m 90% 67%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 8h 14m 97% 67%
AmericanDetails → SFO 11:24 → MIA 20:05AA 2565 2h 05m Miami MIA 22:10 → DCA 00:49 +1AA 708 10h 25m 94% 64%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27UA 1387 1h 23m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 8h 44m 89% 59%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:37 → DTW 19:09DL 361 2h 15m Detroit DTW 21:24 → DCA 22:59DL 2073 8h 22m 95% 58%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 9h 14m 97% 56%
AmericanDetails → SFO 11:24 → DFW 17:14AA 1849 2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 9h 35m 95% 50%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 1h 10m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 7h 54m 64% 44%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:20 → BOS 21:02DL 977 46m Boston BOS 21:48 → DCA 23:44DL 5704 · flown by Republic 8h 24m 48% 30%
FrontierDetails → SFO 12:02 → DEN 15:38F9 1094 50m Denver DEN 16:28 → DCA 21:59F9 690 6h 57m 41% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON