Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:43 am at San Francisco); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Today: UA 1722 at 23:59 is the safest bet, 30% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–49%.

Safest bet today UA 1722 SFO 23:59 → DFW 05:45 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 2387 SFO 14:03 → DFW 19:59 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1722 United Flight history →	SFO 23:59	DFW 05:45	30%	7%	0.8%	79%
AA 2228 American Flight history →	SFO 23:20	DFW 04:59	31%	8%	1.3%	27%
AA 1188 American	SFO 09:05	DFW 14:37	33%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 1711 American Flight history →	SFO 17:01	DFW 22:47	33%	13%	1.1%	51%
AA 557 American	SFO 17:36	DFW 23:07	35%	14%	1.0%	no record
UA 1336 United	SFO 16:39	DFW 22:18	35%	11%	0.3%	no record
AA 3258 American Flight history →	SFO 12:30	DFW 18:26	38%	13%	1.0%	73%worse than usual
AA 3222 American	SFO 12:35	DFW 18:08	40%	14%	1.0%	no record
AA 2205 American	SFO 15:56	DFW 21:31	40%	13%	1.0%	no record
UA 2842 United Flight history →	SFO 10:25	DFW 16:08	45%	9%	0.4%	61%
AA 1849 American Flight history →	SFO 11:24	DFW 17:14	45%	11%	1.0%	45%
AA 2325 American Flight history →	SFO 15:38	DFW 21:25	46%	14%	1.1%	49%
AA 2387 American Flight history →	SFO 14:03	DFW 19:59	49%	16%	1.0%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON