Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:36 pm at San Francisco); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 37–38% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


OO 410 SkyWest	SFO 21:14	MRY 22:12	37%	9%	1.3%	no record
UA 5670 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 22:40	MRY 23:47	38%	11%	1.5%	76%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SFO 18:42 → SAN 20:21AS 2058 · flown by Horizon	2h 05m San Diego	SAN 22:26 → MRY 23:58AS 3005 · flown by SkyWest	5h 16m	87%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON