Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 44–45% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2572 SJC 11:47 → DFW 17:30 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 2834 SJC 14:37 → DFW 20:03 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 2572 American Flight history →	SJC 11:47	DFW 17:30	44%	11%	0.8%	75%worse than usual
AA 2046 American Flight history →	SJC 12:10	DFW 17:50	44%	11%	0.8%	82%worse than usual
AA 436 American Flight history →	SJC 14:23	DFW 20:04	45%	14%	0.8%	62%
AA 2834 American Flight history →	SJC 14:37	DFW 20:03	45%	14%	0.8%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON