tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:27 pm at San Jose)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:01, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038 9h 59m 94% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 16:48 → SEA 18:55AS 521 3h 45m Seattle SEA 22:40 → EWR 06:59 +1AS 314 11h 11m 97% 69%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 18:37 → PDX 20:29AS 3030 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Portland PDX 21:31 → EWR 05:59 +1AS 1631 8h 22m 79% 66%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 17:28 → SEA 19:39AS 1413 3h 02m Seattle SEA 22:41 → EWR 06:40 +1AS 395 10h 12m 93% 62%
UnitedDetails → SJC 14:32 → DEN 18:11UA 719 1h 06m Denver DEN 19:17 → EWR 01:10 +1UA 2093 7h 38m 76% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 19:15 → PHX 21:19AA 2094 55m Phoenix PHX 22:14 → EWR 06:00 +1AA 2156 7h 45m 48% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON