Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:27 pm at San Jose); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:40, is the safest bet: 44% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 2383 Delta Flight history →	SJC 13:10	MSP 18:44	24%	7%	0.2%	89%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	3h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:17 → MSP 02:49 +1DL 8847	7h 48m	94%	78%
United Details →	SJC 14:32 → DEN 18:11UA 719	2h 43m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	7h 27m	93%	58%
American Details →	SJC 12:45 → PHX 14:46AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	1h 58m Phoenix	PHX 16:44 → MSP 21:54AA 2820	7h 09m	100%	57%
Delta Details →	SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	2h 26m Los Angeles	LAX 18:50 → MSP 00:20 +1DL 2180	7h 21m	91%	55%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	9h 59m	97%	52%
Southwest Details →	SJC 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3668	1h 45m Denver	DEN 20:05 → MSP 23:10WN 300	6h 15m	83%	43%
American Details →	SJC 14:37 → DFW 20:03AA 2834	1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149	7h 20m	77%	34%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SJC 13:10 → IAH 19:05UA 2078	57m Houston	IAH 20:02 → MSP 23:12UA 1872	8h 02m	56%	36%
Delta Details →	SJC 16:30 → LAX 17:56DL 3822 · flown by SkyWest	54m Los Angeles	LAX 18:50 → MSP 00:20 +1DL 2180	5h 50m	53%	32%
Delta Details →	SJC 14:55 → SEA 17:09DL 3789 · flown by SkyWest	56m Seattle	SEA 18:05 → MSP 23:30DL 949	6h 35m	52%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON