Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 74%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: AS 432 at 15:51, 50%.

Safest bet today AS 432 SJC 15:51 → SAN 17:24 · 50% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3701 SJC 15:40 → SAN 17:05 · 83% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Weather 74% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 18 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 432 Alaska	SJC 15:51	SAN 17:24	50%	19%	1.2%	no record
OO 3312 SkyWest	SJC 20:09	SAN 21:47	53%	22%	1.4%	no record
AS 3211 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 17:02	SAN 18:36	55%	27%	1.3%	61%worse than usual
WN 965 Southwest	SJC 19:46	SAN 21:20	75%	32%	0.6%	no record
WN 1935 Southwest	SJC 21:41	SAN 23:16	75%	25%	0.7%	no record
WN 4265 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:25	SAN 22:55	78%	27%	0.6%	48%worse than usual
WN 3702 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 17:30	SAN 18:55	79%	31%	0.6%	52%worse than usual
WN 4347 Southwest	SJC 18:16	SAN 19:51	79%	35%	0.6%	no record
WN 2754 Southwest	SJC 18:46	SAN 20:21	79%	35%	0.6%	no record
WN 4513 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 20:00	SAN 21:25	79%	32%	0.6%	33%worse than usual
WN 3872 Southwest	SJC 15:11	SAN 16:45	79%	34%	0.7%	no record
WN 484 Southwest	SJC 16:01	SAN 17:36	79%	34%	0.7%	no record
WN 5026 Southwest	SJC 18:50	SAN 20:15	80%	37%	0.6%	no record
WN 4839 Southwest	SJC 18:20	SAN 19:45	81%	37%	0.6%	no record
WN 3701 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 15:40	SAN 17:05	83%	34%	0.7%	46%worse than usual
AS 2213 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 20:12	SAN 21:48	41%	8%	1.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON