Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:47 pm at Salt Lake City); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 57%, against 34% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2728 at 17:45, 50%.

Nonstops today


DL 2728 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:45	AUS 21:30	50%	15%	0.4%	82%worse than usual
WN 1567 Southwest	SLC 16:50	AUS 20:40	65%	29%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 20:08 → SFO 21:10UA 2097	2h 49m San Francisco	SFO 23:59 → AUS 05:46 +1UA 1807	8h 38m	92%	58%
Delta Details →	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	1h 47m San Francisco	SFO 17:59 → AUS 23:32DL 1077	7h 22m	91%	46%
Delta Details →	SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841	1h 56m Los Angeles	LAX 18:32 → AUS 23:29DL 692	6h 49m	95%	40%
Southwest Details →	SLC 16:45 → DEN 18:15WN 3740	3h 40m Denver	DEN 21:55 → AUS 01:10 +1WN 2695	7h 25m	97%	38%
Delta Details →	SLC 15:30 → LAS 15:55DL 1672	1h 21m Las Vegas	LAS 17:16 → AUS 22:06DL 2260	5h 36m	78%	31%
Southwest Details →	SLC 16:10 → DAL 19:45WN 3736	2h 40m Dallas	DAL 22:25 → AUS 23:35WN 4887	6h 25m	94%	29%
Delta Details →	SLC 15:24 → DEN 16:54DL 1623	2h 36m Denver	DEN 19:30 → AUS 22:51DL 3669 · flown by SkyWest	6h 27m	91%	29%
Frontier Details →	SLC 16:09 → DEN 17:47F9 4236	3h 05m Denver	DEN 20:52 → AUS 00:07 +1F9 2890	6h 58m	92%	28%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SLC 16:53 → DFW 20:39AA 1456	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:35 → AUS 22:39AA 972	4h 46m	47%	14%
Southwest Details →	SLC 19:35 → DEN 21:05WN 3741	50m Denver	DEN 21:55 → AUS 01:10 +1WN 2695	4h 35m	20%	8%
United Details →	SLC 17:57 → DEN 19:40UA 1910	47m Denver	DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943	4h 47m	17%	7%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON